The only thing that has changed is the scenery.
From the backdrop of the Twin Spires, to the home of Mardi Gras, to the glittering towers that surround Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum's equine epicenter, the rhythmic stride of Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm's chestnut flagbearer remains steadfast.
Half a world away from any of his various bases, Gun Runner prepares for the $10 million Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airlines (G1) as he always does—acting as if the whole charade is old hat. Frankly, when one boils down his current situation, it is.
Big prizes, big stakes, bigger and badder opponents. The son of Candy Ride has looked all of the above in the eye and not once shirked a challenge. The question has never been "if" Gun Runner will show up—not after seven wins from 13 starts over eight different tracks. Whether his uncomplicated best is good enough to complicate life for Arrogate, a horse thus far without peer, is the query he has been sent to Meydan Racecourse to answer.
Were it not for an equine herpesvirus outbreak that placed Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots under a lengthy quarantine, there would be no need for speculation on how Gun Runner's 4-year-old form stacks up against the beastly Arrogate. Unable to ship out of his New Orleans base for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) at Gulfstream Park Jan. 28, the connections of Gun Runner could do little but watch as Arrogate unleashed another track-record setting victory in which he barely appeared to be trying.
Arrogate's status as the best handicap horse currently in training is beyond reproach. And if the son of Unbridled's Song keeps unearthing new levels to his game as his people suggest he can, the March 25 Dubai World Cup could be one for the ages.
Gun Runner hasn't just stood still, however, while Juddmonte Farms' champion colt has embarked on a freakish career trajectory. When he was finally able to make his seasonal bow in the Feb. 20 Razorback Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park, he was expected to win but also expected to need a tightener. As he galloped to a front-running, 5 3/4-length victory easy as he pleased, the ambitious plan of taking on Arrogate in Dubai became something that would have been crazy not to do.
"He's getting better and better and (the Razorback) was an extremely pleasant performance, even better than anticipated," said Doug Cauthen, vice chairman of Three Chimneys. "He's a heck of a nice horse and he's proven it.
"It's a big race on a big day. California Chrome looked like he would be tough in the Pegasus and he didn't show up, so you just don't know. You have to put them in the gate and let them run. Arrogate is the best horse in the world right now... and he beat Gun Runner the time they met (in the Travers Stakes). I think Gun Runner is better. Has he improved enough? I can't say that he has but we'll find out soon enough."
In the span of about seven months, beginning with his track-record setting triumph in the Travers Stakes (G1) last August, Arrogate has already emerged as one of the great raw talents of recent time.
Gun Runner's progression by contrast has been a slow burn, albeit an expected one. His hints at precocity as a 2-year-old morphed into multiple graded stakes-winning form last season and his durability made him the most reliable member of his 3-year-old class.
He didn't quite peak in the first leg of the Triple Crown as hoped, finishing third to champion Nyquist in the 2016 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1). But while many of his brethren ended up victims of attrition, Gun Runner was taking his lumps race by race and getting better for it all. Instead of being worn out at the end of a dance-every-dance campaign, he bounced out of his runner-up effort in the Nov. 4 Las Vegas Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) so well he practically forced trainer Steve Asmussen to wheel him back for his winning effort over elders the Nov. 25 Clark Handicap (G1).
"He's been unbelievably consistent. We always felt when he ran as a 3-year-old early on that he would get better and better," said Ron Winchell of Winchell Thoroughbreds. "We were hoping better and better meant the Kentucky Derby, which he did run great in. But it seems as he gets older, he's getting stronger. When he won the Clark, it kind of made us feel like what we thought he was going to do had actually happened. And then he reinforced that down in Arkansas."
The educated opinion from his camp is that Gun Runner still has upside to be unleashed. The 1 1/4 miles is something that is yet to be determined as a distance that truly suits him, and it may be that he gets by on class more than stamina in that final furlong.
What has never been in doubt is faith that he'll fire against the best of them—his two off-the-board outings over sloppy tracks notwithstanding. Over and over again, he keeps coming up with better answers to increasingly tougher asks.
"Clearly when you look at him, he's bigger, stronger. He looks like more of a filled out racehorse than he did last year," Winchell said. "He hasn't been tested this year really so we'll see with this race and we'll see about the mile and a quarter. He just keeps doing so well, telling everybody he wants to do more. So we're here."
